Understanding the Enormous BLS Job Report Errors, What Really Happened?

As part of its monthly jobs reports, the BLS provides an adjustment series to normalize employment levels to match nonfarm payrolls. The experimental series is LNS16000000, “Employment Adjusted to CES Concepts“. I was not aware this series existed until yesterday. For 20 years between 2003 and 2023, the BLS adjustment was remarkably accurate.