35% Recession Probability In 2024: Why J.P. Morgan Sees Growing Risks Despite Cooling Inflation

As of Aug. 15, J.P. Morgan Research indicates that the probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2024 has hit 35%, up from their 25% midyear estimate. While inflation seems to be slowing down, signs of weakening economic growth and a softer-than-expected labor market are key drivers behind this increased probability.