Higher for Longer Inflation & Interest Rates Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings? Waiting for the 2-Year Treasury Yield to Overshoot

Inflation surprised in 2023 with its sharp decline, driven by the collapse in energy prices and the drop in durable goods prices. Both of them have come off huge price spikes since mid-2022, pulling down overall CPI inflation from 9.0% in June 2022 to 3.1% in January 2024.