A Recession Model That's Never Been Wrong Just Hit 49%. That Was Before the Iran War.

The first few months of 2026 have been difficult for investors. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is down 4.6% (it was down nearly 8% before a partial recovery this week), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has fallen further, down 7.1% (it was down more than 11% before a partial recovery).